Thursday, August 24, 2006

Resume Program

Another post directed at my readership of 3.
I'm sure you can't contain your glee.

I could have attempted to write something that rhymed for more paragraphs, but the wine has been flowing.

Speculation abounds as to who will purchase ihug.
Does anyone actually want them ?
Does anyone actually care ?

My prediction is ........ Orcon.

Orcon have done a few things right recently, which some of the larger Telco's (larger in terms of existing voice customers) should have done ages ago.
I'll be honest and say I have no idea of the margins for reselling Vodafones mobile services, but it's about time someone other than TelstraClear got in on the act.
Yes, probably before the Government made rumblings about regulating the mobile environment Vodafone either wasn't keen or charged some high prices to potential customers, but Orcon was definitely the first to realise that had changed.

Fuck IPTV, and Video on Demand - the real profitable "Triple Play" is;
Mobile, Fixed Line and Data communications.
Being able to offer all three services, means you can easily attract those larger customers and use that to offset this UBS crap - which lets face it, everyone is only offering for one of 3 reasons.

1) To gain market share for LLU
2) To sell tolls to those customers
3) To inflate customer numbers and "billed" revenue for when a larger Telco buys you

Speaking of predictions (I did several paragraphs ago ok, pay attention!) here's an update on my 2-3 year predictions:

Woosh will either cease to exist, or be brought by another provider and "merged"

Well they bought Quicksilver a FIXED line Telecommunications provider.
Isn't that basically saying that their wireless revolution is doomed ?
With several other fixed line Telco's branching out into Wimax, they're going to lose lose lose money hand over fist.

Telecom will chill out and voluntarily split their retail and wholesale operations

Kinda, sorta happened. (Yes I know it's not structural separation).
I think they will go all the way in the end to save face, rather than being forced by the Government.

Lots of little ISPs will go under - will anyone notice ?

Well several have been bought out.
Quicksilver, Maxnet (I think?) to start, and others sure to follow shortly before LLU hits.

Customers will continue to be cnuts and want faster, cheaper, unlimited broadband so they can download their child porn, and sailor moon episodes

Thats a given.

Customer expectations of what constitutes faster cheaper broadband will be at least 100Mbps with a 500GB cap.
There will be many posts in various forums (mostly game related) explaining why it is a ripoff they should have to pay at all for their service, and the ISPs should be paying them!

Also a given.

Free Internet Access will come back (lol)

I think free dialup will become a reality once broadband gets very cheap.
Of course some kind of minimum tolls spend would be required.

Net4u's liquidation will finally finish.

Still waiting for this one!

Alternative Futures will get struck off the Companies Register (I mean WTF?)

Finally finished - Aaria how you will be missed!

Robots, and sharks with lasers!

Ok not yet, but give it time.

By now most people in the industry will have seen the Annette Presley video circulating YouTube.

Now that, dear readers was comedy gold.
Much was made comparing her to dear Theresa Gattung, and lets face it if you had the choice between the two to run your multi-million dollar business that wouldn't inspire you with confidence.
I think it was a good idea to begin with to make her the face and voice of a growing company, but now I think most Telecommunications users are past "relating" to the CEO's.
If a CEO is doing their job well, an end user of that company shouldn't be aware of who they are.
Lets look at who we don't hear much from ....

Cecil Alexander/Paul Clarkin - Directors of WorldxChange
Michael Spencer - CEO ICONZ
Brett Herkt - MD Maxnet
Karim Hussona - CEO Compass
Alan Freeth - CEO TelstraClear

These people don't tend to make pointless press releases, whinge constantly about Telecom and you'd hope are quietly building succesful companies.
I'm sure none of them will be going hungry anytime soon.

The big three (excluding Theresa who isn't often in the limelight of her own choice) that seem to be the media darlings are:

Annette Presley - Excutive Director Slingshot
Mark Rushworth - CEO ihug (or is that IINet NZ ?)
Seeby Woodhouse - CEO/MD Orcon

Of those three I'd rate Mark Rushworth the highest for relevance, intelligence, and articulation.
Seeby and Annette both seem interested in personal fame, and promoting their companies rather than industry debate and contribution.
Of course thats not necessarily a bad thing if all you consider is "maximising the return to your shareholders" - the major shareholders in this case being those two respectively.

Speaking of Orcon, what a major flip-flop regarding LLU.
They came out initially as a strong opponent of LLU and were used by Telecom as part of their "look how well we already work with ISPs" campaign.

Here's a link to Seeby commenting on LLU way back in 2004:

Some choice comments are:

"let’s not take a backwards step by unbundling the local loop."

"only major players like TelstraClear with pockets deep enough to invest the hundreds of millions of dollars required would survive."

Compare that to Orcon's recent press releases regarding what a 'crucial' role they played in lobbying for LLU:

Plenty of choice quotes in there about how they're completely behind it, investing millions and thriving in the new market.